Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 81887.663283 86421.586857 90955.303573 95825.825917 100906.921674 106048.164320 111640.272909
2026-01-25 74384.511461 81292.511261 88392.815728 96226.588089 104617.375071 113325.367943 123035.911188
2026-02-01 68696.994464 77195.958900 86124.006841 96182.290528 107178.334158 118814.195538 132037.689389
2026-02-08 64829.253928 74566.254497 84982.166336 96920.793957 110192.751835 124460.418397 140923.954529
2026-02-15 61170.580715 71829.050358 83415.225593 96897.866141 112106.573636 128681.301571 148059.527568
2026-02-22 58922.540920 70466.302832 83193.503843 98201.491029 115346.927168 134254.342583 156610.435046
2026-03-01 56715.845434 68987.750550 82695.751047 99058.370750 117969.323691 139048.810111 164228.646753
2026-03-08 54206.312490 67013.543184 81498.866971 98990.127883 119427.700818 142439.552337 170190.769466
2026-03-15 52170.094040 65482.823323 80715.926577 99308.332820 121252.998588 146191.724018 176530.154023
2026-03-22 51009.581246 64919.237703 81004.610085 100828.704159 124441.102532 151499.192751 184673.682624
2026-03-29 49734.272105 64149.104413 80989.459701 101938.199292 127108.136574 156180.269089 192088.813058
2026-04-05 48367.930097 63204.070379 80708.835323 102680.806471 129301.959424 160284.438734 198824.005502
2026-04-12 46751.453434 61908.334371 79972.340308 102853.846945 130812.069678 163599.826295 204674.974438
2026-04-19 45272.697260 60730.159810 79333.244297 103106.183303 132390.840619 166986.526862 210621.335927
2026-04-26 43719.798680 59401.545829 78457.290958 103020.423511 133520.283256 169809.746967 215883.505369
2026-05-03 42676.567124 58678.704129 78298.670196 103792.582950 135681.431210 173873.406153 222656.403116
2026-05-10 41319.942355 57505.888720 77532.412973 103766.337878 136824.469035 176678.744647 227893.954070
2026-05-17 40685.526994 57241.962465 77894.275606 105144.272067 139709.410534 181624.796248 235777.604163
2026-05-24 39876.227717 56718.799659 77899.939650 106050.086838 141991.448935 185829.172099 242766.197875
2026-05-31 38679.942112 55646.365783 77164.829738 105977.917910 143015.221192 188460.285412 247806.898586
2026-06-07 37718.023490 54855.106095 76766.274524 106314.309981 144540.234933 191709.018472 253623.062948
2026-06-14 37337.153875 54828.574003 77353.777473 107921.451934 147690.533065 197007.764265 262033.911979
2026-06-21 36796.949121 54566.417585 77616.066455 109094.112939 150280.643960 201610.356136 269595.273061